We show the arithmetic.
Original models, published with their evidence. Every figure classed OBSERVED / DERIVED / ESTIMATED / SPECULATIVE; every thesis published with the observations that would prove it wrong. We grade our own calls in public.
Published models
The Silver Bottleneck
Flagship · Metals · Supply & Demand · Aug 2026A bottom-up model of the silver market, 2020–2035. AI demand quantified honestly, PV thrifting mapped, and the float mechanism that actually sets the price.
The Dragon's Hoard
Flagship · Gold · China · Aug 2026Beijing reports 2,366 tonnes of gold. The flows say double. The 21-month streak, the gold beans, and the settlement plumbing — documented vs inferred, kept strictly apart.
Macro Outlook — Autumn 2026
Quarterly · Macro · Aug 2026Hard assets in a hike-or-hold world: fiscal dominance, the energy-inflation floor, the official gold bid — and the dates that decide the quarter. Graded in public next quarter.
Why We Stack
Flagship · Physical Markets · Monetary History · Aug 2026From Augustus to the monster box: Jefferson's basement half dismes, the greatest collections ever sold, and the actual science of the hoarding instinct.
The Great Debasement
Flagship · Monetary History · Aug 2026Two thousand years of governments making money worth less — the denarius data, Old Coppernose, LBJ's promise, the $40 trillion debt, and the honest counter-case.
Coming next: The Float Report (monthly) · Stress Index history · the daily Brief. Research becomes tools — the instrument panel is where models go to live.
Hard Money. Hard Numbers. · Not investment advice. Some links pay us a commission — disclosures. Affiliate economics never determine research conclusions or rankings. © 2026 OunceDesk. Every figure classed OBSERVED / DERIVED / ESTIMATED / SPECULATIVE.