Research
The Desk
Original models, published with their evidence. Every figure classed OBSERVED / DERIVED / ESTIMATED / SPECULATIVE; every thesis published with the observations that would prove it wrong. We grade our own calls in public.
How we work: methodology · corrections: research@ouncedesk.com
Flagship · Metals · Supply & Demand · Aug 2026
The Silver Bottleneck
A bottom-up model of the silver market, 2020–2035. AI demand quantified honestly, PV thrifting mapped, and the float mechanism that actually sets the price.
Flagship · Gold · China · Aug 2026
The Dragon's Hoard
Beijing reports 2,366 tonnes of gold. The flows say double. The 21-month streak, the gold beans, and the settlement plumbing — documented vs inferred, kept strictly apart.
Quarterly · Macro · Aug 2026
Macro Outlook — Autumn 2026
Hard assets in a hike-or-hold world: fiscal dominance, the energy-inflation floor, the official gold bid — and the dates that decide the quarter. Graded in public next quarter.
Flagship · Physical Markets · Monetary History · Aug 2026
Why We Stack
From Augustus to the monster box: Jefferson's basement half dismes, the greatest collections ever sold, and the actual science of the hoarding instinct.
Flagship · Monetary History · Aug 2026
The Great Debasement
Two thousand years of governments making money worth less — the denarius data, Old Coppernose, LBJ's promise, the $40 trillion debt, and the honest counter-case.
Coming next: The Float Report (monthly) · Stress Index history · the daily Brief. Research becomes tools: the instrument panel is where models go to live.