Evidence classes
Four labels appear across OunceDesk research and data:
- OBSERVED — directly reported by a primary source (an exchange report, a mint specification, a filed statistic). We cite the source and retrieval date.
- DERIVED — arithmetic on observed values, with the arithmetic shown. Melt values and premiums are derived.
- ESTIMATED — requires assumptions; the assumptions are stated and the sensitivity is usually shown.
- SPECULATIVE — scenario reasoning, flagged as such. We publish these too — clearly labeled — because refusing to reason about the future isn't rigor, it's abdication.
Spot prices
Live prices (gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, BTC) are fetched client-side from a free market API and refreshed every 60 seconds while a page is open. Every live figure carries a status: SNAPSHOT (build-time value, dated), ● LIVE, or STALE with the last update time — a dollar figure is never silently stale. We also capture spot observations on our own schedule into an append-only archive with full provenance (source, timestamps, parser version), which will power historical charts as the archive deepens.
Melt values
Melt value = metal content × spot. Coin compositions come from official US Mint specifications (OBSERVED). All melt math lives in a single tested library — the same code computes every melt figure on the site, covered by a fixture test suite that pins published specifications (a Morgan dollar is 0.77344 oz of silver everywhere, forever, or the build fails).
The 0.715 junk-silver convention
$1 face value of US 90% coin contains 0.7234 oz of silver by mint specification. The trade convention for circulated coin is 0.715 oz per $1 face — a haircut for average circulation wear. It is a convention, not a physical constant; our junk silver calculator supports both and always labels which is active.
The OunceDesk Silver Stress Index
A 0–100 composite of physical-market stress in silver, updated monthly (consumer alias: the Squeeze-O-Meter). Components: lease rates, futures-curve shape, COMEX registered inventory, LBMA free float (derived), and physical premiums. Each component is scored against its historical range; the October 2025 squeeze — lease rates above 30%, backwardation, airborne metal — scored ~92 and anchors the top of the scale. Current reading: 24/100 (CALM), as of 2026-08. The index is DERIVED from observed components; component status is always published alongside the score. Underlying market analysis: The Silver Bottleneck.
Gold, platinum and palladium stress indices
Methodology in development. Each metal's market structure differs — gold stress runs through leasing, central-bank flow and regional premiums; platinum and palladium through concentrated supply (South Africa, Russia) and automotive demand. We will not publish a score for symmetry's sake; each index ships when its inputs and calibration are defensible, with its methodology added here first.
Dealer premiums (Deal Desk)
Premium = executable cash price − (metal content × the same live spot reference), measured per product class as each dealer's lowest in-stock qualifying offer, aggregated as a median with a minimum dealer count, staleness limits, and published availability. Full rules including out-of-stock and outlier treatment are documented and versioned; no index value is published until three or more authorized feeds and thirty days of history exist. Data will come from authorized dealer price feeds only — we don't scrape against dealers' terms, and we never publish invented offers.
Coin data
Specifications (weight, composition, diameter, edge, designer, years, mints) come from official mint records and standard numismatic references. Mintages, where shown, are published US Mint figures. We deliberately do not publish collector price guides yet: numismatic values require sourced market observations (auction results, graded-sale data) with provenance and timestamps, and we won't invent them. Where a coin is a known key date we say so, and explain why, without attaching a fabricated dollar figure. Rarity labels (KEY / SEMI-KEY / CONDITIONAL / COMMON) follow documented OunceDesk editorial definitions — published on each series page — in the Red Book/Bowers tradition; they are collector conventions, not mathematical scores, and we label them as such.
Images
Third-party imagery ships only from our curated visual library with per-asset provenance: source, license, rights status and required credit. Coin photography is never edited in ways that change apparent grade, color or surfaces. A build-time validator refuses images that lack cleared rights records.
Research process
Flagship research publishes its model, its sources, its evidence ledger, and its falsifiers — the observations that would prove the thesis wrong. We grade our own calls in public. Corrections: research@ouncedesk.com.